Tour de France - predicted stage outcomes & top 10

The Tour route 2015

The Tour de France starts in Utrecht and ends in Paris.What happens on the roads in between, is right now the great unknown, the beauty of bike racing is the great unknown, that 198 riders from 22 teams will start is sure, how many finish and in what order, is anyone's guess. 

For instance, who would have had Nibali, Peraud and Pinot on the podium in 2014 (a very rich man if they had the foresight to bet on it!).

But I have taken a stab anyway at predicting the Tour.

For more detailed information on the Tour and stages visit the great cycling blog Inrng .

For the latest results and live updates visit Cyclingnews.com

For the best podcasts on discussing the Tour visit the cycling podcast or ITV.

And you can watch live from 1/2pm on ITV4 and highlights every evening between 7-8pm.

Vive le Tour!

The Laurens Ten Dam - The exposed roads of Zelande could cause splits on Stage 2

Stage 1 July 04, 2015 Utrecht (ITT)13.8 km - Tom Dumoulin (Giant-Alpecin)
Stage 2 July 05, 2015 Utrecht - Zelande166 km - Mark Cavendish (Etixx-Quick Step)
Stage 3 July 06, 2015 Anvers - Huy 159.5 km - Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
Stage 4 July 07, 2015 Seraing - Cambrai 223.5 km - Sepp Vanmarcke (Lotto Jumbo NL)
Stage 5 July 08, 2015 Arras - Amiens Metropole 189.5 km - Alexander Kristoff (Katusha)
Stage 6 July 09, 2015 Abbeville - Le Harve 191.5 km - Peter Sagan (Tinkoff-Saxo)
Stage 7 July 10, 2015 Livarot - Fougeres 190.5 km - Mark Cavendish (Etixx-Quick Step)
Stage 8 July 11, 2015 Rennes - Mur de Bretagne 181.5 km - Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha)
Stage 9 July 12, 2015 Vannes - Plumelec (TTT) 28 km - Movistar
Rest Day 1 July 13, 2015 Pau - Pau
Stage 10 July 14, 2015 Tarbes - La Pierre-Saint-Martin 167 km - Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
Stage 11 July 15, 2015 Pau - Cauterets Vallee de Saint-Savin 188 km - Chris Froome (Team Sky)
Stage 12 July 16, 2015 Lannemezan - Plateau de Beille 195 km - Chris Froome (Team Sky)
Stage 13 July 17, 2015 Muret - Rodez 198.5 km - Ryder Hesjedal - (Team Cannondale-Garmin)
Stage 14 July 18, 2015 Rodez - Mende 178.5 km - Simon Yates (Orica-Greenedge)
Stage 15 July 19, 2015 Mende - Valence 183 km - Michael Matthews (Orica-Greenedge)
Stage 16 July 20, 2015 Bourg-de-Peage - Gap 201 km - Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo)
Rest Day 2 July 21, 2015
Stage 17 July 22, 2015 Digne-les-Bains - Pra-Loup 161 km - Romain Bardet (AG2R)
Stage 18 July 23, 2015 Gap - Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne 186.5 km Rui Costa (Lampre)
Stage 19 July 24, 2015 Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - La Toussuire - Les Sybelles 138 km Chris Froome (Team Sky)
Stage 20 July 25, 2015 Modane Valfrejus - Alpe d'Huez 110.5 km - Warren Barguil (Giant-Alpecin)
Stage 21 July 26, 2015 Sevres - Grand Paris Seine Ouest - Paris Champs-Elysees 109.5 km - Mark Cavendish (Team Etixx-Quick Step)

I'm predicting Chris Froome will be in Yellow again
in Paris on the 26th July

Top 10 Predictions - 
1 - Chris Froome - Team Sky
2 - Nairo Quintana - Movistar
3 - Alberto Contador - Tinkoff-Saxo
4 - Vincenzo Nibali - Astana
5 - Thibault Pinot - FDJ
6 -  Tejay Van Garderen (BMC)
7 - Wilco Kelderman (Lotto-Jumbo NL)
8 - Andrew Talansky (Cannondale-Garmin)
9 - Romain Bardet (AG2R)
10 - Warren Barguil (Giant-Alpecin)

Green Jersey - Mark Cavendish
Polka Dot Jersey - Robert Gesink (Lotto Jumbo NL)
White Jersey - Thibault Pinot
Team Prize - Movistar

Tour de France - the race for polka dot

Richard Virenque holds the record for most KoM wins, with 7

Rafa Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo)
Majka was a standout performer at last years Tour, winning 2 stages and taking the climbers jersey. However, this was only possible as his team leader Alberto Contador had crashed out, and it allowed Majka to have a free hand, in a race he originally didn't want to ride after a hard Giro.

He undoubtedly has the talent, but if Contador stays in contention, Majka won't have the same freedom that he had in 2014.

The Polka-dot jersey has lost it's allure from the heady days of Bahamontes, Jimenez and Van Impe in the 60s and 70s.

The General Classification ("GC") contenders shy away from the battle for mountains points, as they save themselves for the final climb, where as the hunt for mountains points, requires a more aggressive strategy of breakaways and bursts of energy on climbs that come earlier in the stages.

However, the winner needs to have good form, as there is the need for consistency, and so the King of the Mountains, rewards the combination of aggressive riding, consistently across several stages and obviously good climbing ability.

Generally, it is the focus of the smaller teams, or teams who have lost their GC contender earlier in the race.

One of the Yates twins, could target the jersey, as well as the inevitable French contenders, such as Voeckler, Feillu, Vuillermoz and Barguil.

Tour de France - the race for White

The White Jersey, is the preserve of the future champion, having been won by,
LeMond, Fignon, Pantani, Ullrich, Contador and Schleck

The White Jersey, or the Maillot Blanc, is the jersey for the best young rider in the race. To qualify, riders must be 25 or under in the year of the race. So this year, that includes anyone born in 1990 or later.

The main contenders for the White jersey are likely to be the following:-

Adam & Simon Yates (Orica-Greenedge)
The twins at Orica-Greenedge are a wildcard option, for Simon this is his second tour, and that may help him.

After Simon's 5th place at the Dauphine he is the favourite of the two for a top 10 finish and an outside shot at the white jersey.

Adam's form is a little more uncertain, but neither Yates is lacking class. Adam may target more stage breaks especially in the moutains.

Thibault Pinot (FDJ)
Pinot finished 3rd last year, winning the white jersey, by beating fellow frenchman Romain Bardet.
Thibault Pinot is showing good form again this year, with a good showing in the Tour de Suisse, winning the Queen stage.

Romain Bardet (AG2R)
Bardet had his breakthrough year, last year with 6th overall in the Tour, alongside a 5th place in the Dauphine.

Bardet was aggressive in the recent Dauphine, winning stage 5, and coming 6th overall, which would have been higher, but for an unfortunate crash on stage 6.

Michal Kwiatkowski (Etixx-Quick-Step)
The world champion is a multi talented rider, he can climb with the best on a good day, but is likely to have different objectives, e.g. support Cavendish, go for stage wins, so is unlikely to target the white jersey overall but could be an outside contender for top 10 if it was his pure focus.

Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
One of the big favourites for the overall, but also eligible for the young riders jersey. He won the white jersey in 2013. He will be the white jersey favourite.

Tour de France Stages Preview

With the Tour de France just over a week away from starting, I'm going to do a series of previews of what to expect in the Tour de France.


The first one is a preview of the stages of the tour de france, what to expect on each one and where the best action will be.


Stages for Sprinters
Stage 2 - Vise - Tournai
Stage 4 - Abbeville - Rouen
Stage 5 - Rouen - St Quentin
Stage 6 - Epernay - Metz
Stage 13 - Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux - Le Cap d'Agde
Stage 15 - Samatan - Pau
Stage 18 - Blagnac - Brive-la-Gaillarde
Stage 20 - Rambouillet - Paris Champs Elysees


Stages for Puncheurs (Punchy climbers)
Stage 1 - Liege - Seraing
Stage 3 - Orchies - Boulogne Sur Mer


Stages for Climbers
Stage 7 - Tomblaine - La Planche des Belles Filles
Stage 8 - Belfort - Porrentury
Stage 10 - Macon - Bellegarde sur Valserine 
Stage 11 - Albertville - La Toussuire LesSybelles
Stage 14 - Limoux - Foix


Stages for Time Trialists
Stage 9 - Arc et Senans - Besancon (41.5km)
Stage 19 - Bonneval - Chartres (53.5km)


Stages for breakaways
Stage 12 - St-Jean de Maurienne - Annonay Davezieux
Stage 16 - Pau - Bagneres-de-Luchon
Stage 17 - Bagneres-de-Luchon - Peyragudes


I've separated the stages in to who I think they will suit. Although, stage 13, 15 and 18 I've listed as sprinters stages, they could equally be breakaways as they are not straightforward flat stages.


Where the Tour will be won
The time trials will be key, with nearly 100 km of time trialling compared to just 42.5km individual and a team time trial of 23km.


Last year the first 20 were separated by 2mins 41secs. This means that time gaps between time trialists like Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins and climbers like Robert Gesink could be 5 minutes.


With only two high summit finishes on stage 11 and 17 and one mid mountain summit finish stage 7, the Tour certainly favours the time triallists, especially without protagonists such as Rodriguez, Contador and Andy Schleck. The time gaps in the mountains are unlikely to be as high as without them.


Stage 7 is going to be a key one. This will be where the key contenders will come to the fore and we will see who the challengers for the yellow jersey, podium and top 10 will be.


Sprinters
On paper the sprinters have 8 chances to win a stage, however it is not that simple. Many of the stages have sharp climbs close to the end, stage 3 and 4 being the case and point. These could be a perfect springboard for an opportunist to get away. This could stretch the resources of Lotto-Belisol and Team Sky especially. Team Sky will have to try to measure their resources to ensure their is enough support for both Mark Cavendish and Bradley Wiggins.


Even though the stages are not necessarily as exciting as previous years, it is the racers not the stages that make a great tour. I think this Tour is going to be as tight as ever and hopefully as exciting as ever.


I can't wait!