Armstrong - The lie we all feared is the truth

So USADA (United States Anti Doping Agency) have released their report.

I have not read the report (I unfortunately don't have time to read the 1000 page report) but from reports on the BBC and from following @mattslaterbbc a BBC Sports Journalist, it is clear that Lance Armstrong is not only implicated in doping, but was the instigator and ring leader of doping in the US Postal team.

As mentioned in my blog Vuelta and Omerta last month the weight of testimony from former teammates had placed doubts on Armstrong's credibility regarding doping.

Those team mates were all already retired and many of them discredited. The report from USADA includes new testimony from team mates with more to lose.

David Zabriskie, Levi Leipheimer, Christian Vande Velde, Tom Danielsson, Michael Barry and George Hincapie were all riding whilst they gave evidence to the USADA, they have all been banned for 6 months from September 2012 for 6 months. This will mean by the time the season starts in earnest in March they will be back, it is effectively a wrap on the wrists.

These riders certainly had more credibility than the likes of Floyd Landis and Tyler Hamilton, who were discredited before they spoke out. 

That a total of 26 former riders and members of staff, testified, shows the weight of evidence against Armstrong. Further evidence is given in payments to Dr. Michele Ferrari, a Doctor who was found guilty by the Italian cycling body of having been involved in administering doping products to riders.

Armstrong has long been connected to Ferrari, but denied that this was the case. This has been found to be one of many lies that Armstrong has told.

One key lie is the centre of Armstrong's defence, that he has never failed a drugs test. The truth of this statement is in doubt, as evidence has emerged, from rider testimonies, that Armstrong tested positive in 2009 just a month or so before the Tour de France.

This positive was then apparently covered up by the UCI (Cycling's governing body) in return for payments from Armstrong to the UCI. 

This is the equivalent of Wayne Rooney being caught cheating or taking drugs, then going to the FA paying them some money and then no action being taken.

This questions the whole integrity of the governing body of cycling.

Integrity is a word that is now distanced from Armstrong. His cycling achievements are now overshadowed by this evidence.

However what is not in doubt is that he beat cancer, we should remember Armstrong the cancer survivor and charity fundraiser, but Armstrong the cycling legend and hero, he's now a distant memory.

Vuelta and Omerta

Present

The last 3 weeks has seen some of the most exciting road racing of the whole year.

Stark, steep, Spanish climbs have made for daring attacks (such as Contador yesterday) and devilish descending. And as is often the way in the Vuelta (Tour of Spain) the Spaniards are on top.

The Past

But the last 3 weeks have been about a lot more in cycling, the darker side.

The Lance Armstrong affair has overshadowed the Vuelta. Like all doping it has dragged on far longer than it should have. The problem is his case goes to the core of cycling, it implicates the governing body of cycling the UCI.

I first started watching cycling in 1997 as Marco Pantani tore up the alpine climbs of the Tour de France, 3 years later in 2000, I became a serious fan, watching the Giro, the classics and the Vuelta, via Eurosport and buying my monthly Cyclesport magazine.

Those days are tainted, no-one knows who was clean, the assumption now is that all are guilty until proven innocent.

Everyday cycling in the 90s and 00s is tarnished further. This week Jonathan Vaughters (JV), directeur sportif (team manager) for major pro team Garmin-Sharp, revealed three of his own riders (Christian Vande Velde, Tom Danielsson and David Zabriskie) doped. 

Although none of these are big names outside of the cycling world, they all rode for US Postal, as did JV, who admitted doping earlier this year.

Armstrong's innocence is now as unbelievable as some of the doping excuses, such as Tyler Hamilton's chimera twin!

How could Armstrong not have been doped, but ex-team mates Hamilton, Landis, Vande Velde, Danielsson, Zabriskie, Heras, Vaughters, Andreu and others were. It seems unlikely, nay impossible.

That it has taken this long to come to these conclusions is due to what is called in cycling the Omerta - an Italian mafia phrase for code of silence.

This is what has blighted cycling for many years, and continues to haunt it. That more and more riders are coming clean about being doped, is positive, but also well overdue. Just today, Johan Museeuw, a Belgian classics champion came out about having doped, and with Tyler Hamilton's book opening the lid on doping in CSC, US Postal and Phonak, more confessions are likely to come.

Future

The consensus today is that cycling is clean, or as clean as it has ever been, this is a sport where cheating has been associated since the outset (see Maurice Garin 1904 Tour de France).

But the truth is we don't know if that is true. Yes we have the blood passport and more anti-doping controls than ever. However, the same lines were pedalled (pardon the expression) post Festina in 1997 and post Operacion Puerto in 2006, more tests, more clean riders.

The hope is that cycling is changing, but in truth this is probably only partially true. The UCI remains the governing body and still does not appear to do enough to prevent and detect doping, and if the allegations about a cover up for Armstrong are true, then the UCI has no credibility.

The problem is many of the people who were around cycling during the doping days are still around now. Bjaerne Riis, Johan Bruyneel, Patrick Lefevre all current team bosses who in someway assisted doping in their teams in the past.

For cycling to move forward it needs to truly deal with its past, and it needs to change at its heart the UCI has to be reformed.

Unfortunately now all the riders are guilty until proven innocent, not failing a test is no longer proof of not doping.

England Fall Short

England fell just over 50 runs short of winning the test and saving the series and the no. 1 test spot.

In truth they fell short all series and all year. Defeats to Pakistan and South Africa and a drawn series with Sri Lanka represent an under par year with the batting in particular to blame.

In today's test alone England were short of someone going onto a century. A century that could well have won the test.

Pietersen or no Pietersen England have to face the facts, they have been outplayed. And not just in the batting dept but also in the bowling.

Although you would pick Swann over Tahir, Swann had a lacklustre series with the ball. He wasn't the only one Bresnan and Broad weren't able to really ruffle the South African batsmen, only Anderson and yesterday Finn showed the necessary class to bowl out a top side. The next test comes on the sub continent against India. A very different challenge but no less difficult.

Post olympics depression

Whether it was the spice girls, crowded trains, lack of decent tv or absence of games makers, we came to terms today with the truth. The games are over.

Whilst it is only 4 years until the next games in Rio it is unlikely the UK will host the Olympics for at least 50 years and possibly even more.

But we will remember a great games.
From Mo's double, Jess' heptathlon heights, Hoys heroics, to the unsung unknowns such as Jade Jones and Gemma Gibbons.

But these games weren't just about Team GB.

We had Bolt's repeat of his Beijing double, Rudisha's great world record run, Michael Phelps becoming the greatest Olympian of all time with 22 medals 18 of them gold as well as numerous other highlights.

Every competitor has their own story, and in many cases the story is as remarkable as the performance.

I think of Felix Sanchez learning of the death of his grandmother on the eve of his heats, Tom Daley losing his ever supportive Dad last year, and Monteo Mitchell running through the pain of a broken leg. So many athletes deserved medals for their courage alone, but no medal is gifted, each is earned.

London 2012 has left us with much to remember, the tag line for these olympics was inspire a generation for me the greatest inspiration is that courage can triumph over adversity and if you are dedicated success follows.

Olympics Day 1

After an epic opening ceremony.

The real business started yesterday. Unfortunately for Team GB things didn't get off to a great start. Mark Cavendish was nullified by the tactics of the other teams and our outside shots at early swimming medals didn't come off.

Outside of team gb Ryan Lochte got his first medal and a 16 year old Chinese swimmer destroyed the world record in the women's 400m medley, the best is yet to come.

TDF Review

My review of the Tour de France

A race dominated by Team Sky, they took first and second in the tour, and took 6 stages, an awesome performance.

With very few mountain top finishes it wasn't the most dramatic Tour de France and the last time trial had very little impact on the overall standings, such was Bradley Wiggins and Team Sky's dominance.

But it was a historic tour with Britain finally getting a Tour winner, lets hope there are many to follow.

Here is a recap of the Tour results and my take on each teams performance.

General Classification

1- Bradley Wiggins

2- Chris Froome

3- Vincenzo Nibali

4- Jurgen Van den Broeck

5- Teejay Van Garderen (BMC) White Jersey winner

6- Haimar Zubeldia (Radioshack)

7- Cadel Evans (BMC)

8- Pierre Rolland (Europcar)

9- Janez Brajkovic (Astana)

10- Thibault Pinot (FDJ)

Green Jersey - Peter Sagan (Liquigas)

Polka dot jersey - Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

Team Classification - Radioshack -Leopard-Trek

 And a recap of the stage winners:

Prologue: Fabian Cancellara (Radioshack-Nissan-Trek)

Stage 1: Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) 

Stage 2: Mark Cavendish (Team Sky)

Stage 3: Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) 

Stage 4: Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol)

Stage 5: Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol)

Stage 6: Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) 

Stage 7: Chris Froome (Team Sky)

Stage 8: Thibault Pinot (FDJ)
Stage 9: Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)
Stage 10: Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)
Stage 11: Pierre Rolland (Europcar)
Stage 12: David Millar (Garmin)
Stage 13: Andre Greipel (Lotto)
Stage 14: Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank)
Stage 15: Pierrick Fedrigo (FDJ)
Stage 16: Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)
Stage 17: Alejandro Valverde (Movistar)
Stage 18: Mark Cavendish (Team Sky)
Stage 19: Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky)
Stage 20: Mark Cavendish (Team Sky)

And here is how I felt the teams performed:

AG2R - Prediction – Top 15 and placing on a stage
They lived up to my prediction. Nicolas Roche fought valiantly to get into the Top 10 but just missed out, finishing 12th, and almost took a stage but was bewildered by Cav's acceleration. Peraud just missed out ot David Millar on stage 12.

 

Argos - Prediction – Stage win and multiple stage placings
Unfoturnately Marcel Kittel their star sprinter was rather off colour (literally) in the first week and Tom Veelers put on a good showing placing in the top 3 on a couple of stages, however without Kittel they were always struggling and produced precious little.

 

Astana - Prediction – Top 10
Janez Brajkovic struggled in the first week, but recovered to take 9th a solid but unspectacular tour for him. Kessiakoff was close to winning the mountains jersey but was out classed and out climbed by little gurning Tommy V.

BMC - Prediction – 2^nd overall, stage for Gilbert and top 15 Van Garderen (but 2^nd in White)
BMC will look back on the Tour with disappointment, as they would have wished to retained the Yellow jersey, however Evans wasn't able to match Wiggins and the Sky train never looked like being derailed by BMC. Van Garderen was the real promise a very creditable 5th and the white jersey (which I would have predicted if I'd realised Rolland was too old!) and he holds much promise for the future.

 

Cofidis - Prediction – Top 15 (but 3^rd in White) and Moncoutie 3^rd in Mountains jersey
Taaramae looked very good in the first week, keeping pace with the 5 leaders on the first climb, but his form rapidly deteriorated, as did Cofidis' tour, they never really looked like doing much.

 

Europcar - Prediction – Top 10 and white jersey
Ok so the prediction was wrong before we even started, but Rolland finished a very good 8th on a non climbers tour. It was hard to see how Europcar could top last year, but they may well have done 3 stage wins and the mountains jersey! Tommy V looked out of sorts early on but his familiar gurning returned as did the results.

 Euskaltel - Prediction – Top 5
Euskaltel were hit hard by crashes notably the one taking down Sami Sanchez. They worked hard to get into breaks, Izaguirre being a key protagonist but they are too reliant on Sanchez.

 FDJ - Prediction – Top 20, and most aggressive award
Thibault Pinot delivered on his promise at the first time of asking in the Tour, a stage win, notable for Marc Madiot his DS haranging him and a top 10 placing, very impressive on debut. Fedrigo underlined his class, taking another stage win, capping a very good tour for FDJ. 


Garmin - Prediction – Team Prize and 2 Top 10s
The first week couldn't have gone much worse, with scandal behind the scenes with Dutch papers saying JV and several Garmin riders had confessed to doping and then Danielsson and Hesjedal both out of the tour injured, with Vandevelde and Dan Martin losing large chunks of time on GC. However Millar salvaged their tour with a clever stage win on stage 12, with Christian Vandevelde just missing out on stage 15.


Greenedge - Prediction – Stage win
Matt Goss had some good showings just missing out to Greipel, Sagan and Cavendish. He put up a good fight for the first couple of weeks in the green jersey, but after being penalised for 'irregular sprinting' he gave up the fight finishing 3rd in that competition.


Katusha - Prediction – Top 5
After a week Katusha looked to be in good shape with Denis Menchov inside the top 5, but he dropped away, finishing 15th, and with him Katusha chances of doing anything in the tour, they offered very little over the three weeks.


Lampre - Prediction – Top 15 and very little else
Scarponi looked hungover from the Giro and Petacchi looked very much like a sprinter from the last decade, they offered very little, as expected.


Liquigas - Prediction – Top 5 and stage wins
Liquigas were arguably one of the best teams of the Tour, offering as much resistance to Team Sky as anyone. Ivan Basso was a useful domestique for Vincenzo Nibali, who was the most attacking of the leaders in the mountains, both up and down, and he took a very good 3rd place. Peter Sagan was the revelation of the Tour, 3 stage wins and the green jersey on his tour debut, underlined the class of the 22 year old, and he could potentially win a lot more stages and green jerseys in the future.


Lotto - Prediction – Top 5 and stage win
A good tour for Lotto, Van den Broeck was active in the mountains and finished in a very good 4th place in a tour that was not massively suited to his abilities, but Andre Greipel was the main man with 3 stage wins.


Movistar - Prediction – Top 15
Rui Costa looked like getting a good result but faded to 18th. Valverde's stage win rescued a faltering tour for Movistar.


Omega - Prediction – Top 5 and stage win
A poor tour for Omega, Leipheimer didn't have the form for a good GC finish and Velits struggled to match his Vuelta performance from 2010. 


Rabobank - Prediction – Top 5 and Top 15
Crashes in the first week again put pay to Rabobank's chances with Gesink and Mollema both losing out due to crashes. Luis Leon Sanchez showed his class, winning stage 14 and finishing high up in the time trial. 


Radioshack - Prediction – Top 10
Radioshack dominated the team prize, which underlined their depth, but the lack of a true contender meant they never truly challenged for the overall. Haimar Zubeldia showed the stealthy skill that has been the mark of his career, working his way to 6th overall out of the spotlight of the cameras. Chris Horner, Andreas Kloden and Maxime Monfort all made the top 16, but Frank Schleck's positive put a sour note on the Tour.


Saur-Sojasun - Prediction – Top 15
Saur Sojasun were present in breaks but were never really challenging for stages or the overall. Brice Feillu was the best chance of a stage win but he lost out to the persistent and classy Tommy V.


Team Saxo Bank - Prediction – Not much going to happen for Saxo Bank

My prediction was pretty accurate. Michael Morkov had a good showing early on getting in to 3 breaks, and wearing the polka dots jersey, but that was as good as it got. Chris Sorensen winning the combativity prize after catching his fingers in his front wheel, summed up their tour, plucky and persistent but lacking real winners.

Team Sky - Prediction – Yellow, green and stage wins
They didn't achieve the green, but they achieved everything else. Team Sky dominated, winning the overall alone would have made it a great tour, but getting 2nd overall and winning 6 stages, exceeded even the most optimistic of expectations.


Vacansoleil - Prediction – Top 15
A tour sans, sums it up perfectly, a tour without. Vacansoleil had very little to shout about. Van Hummel challenged for intermediates but was found wanting at the stage finishes. The white jersey hopeful Wout Poels had a horror crash and only returned home from hospital a couple of days ago. 

Tour de France Teams Preview

Tour De France Teams

A look at the teams competing in the Tour de France, the riders to look out for, the best result they can expect and my prediction.

AG2R – As with most of the French teams, never lacking in attacking spirit, but outsiders for stage wins.

Jean Christophe Peraud sneaked inside the top 10 last year and could do so again, and Nicholas Roche will have to decide between whether he has the condition to go for a top 10 or whether to focus on a stage win.

Best Result – Stage win and Top 10       Prediction – Top 15 and placing on a stage

Argos-Shimano – Previously known as Skil-Shimano and, earlier this season, Project 1t4i.

The focus is on one man – Marcel Kittel, a contender for the green jersey and several stage wins and a pretender to Mark Cavendish’s crown of best sprinter.

Notable mention – Patrick Gretsch former HTC rider who can time trial well.

Best Result – Multiple stage wins and green jersey          Prediction – Stage win and multiple stage placings

Astana – A team full of potential GC contenders but not necessarily any one stand out performer.

Vinokourov is 38 and on the wane (be it a result of no drugs or getting older), Kashechkin doesn’t look the same rider as before his ban.

Brajkovic is their best prospect, a Slovenian beanpole climber, who can also time-trial. However for all his potential he has yet to fulfil his early promise. His best result remains the Dauphine in 2010 where he beat an in-form Alberto Contador.

Notable mentions – Frederik Kessiakoff and Robert Kiserlovski, two riders, who can on their day climb with the best, could prove valuable support for Brajkovic or become potential outsiders for a top 10 on GC.

Best Result – Top three and stage win    Prediction – Top 10

BMC – One of the strongest teams at the Tour de France, even without last years double stage winner Thor Hushovd.

The team is built around one man, the reigning champion, Cadel Evans. The route favours Cadel with more time trialling than last years edition, and Cadel has proved time and again, when it comes to the mountains he can hold his own with the grimpeurs (climbers).

Phillippe Gilbert is a key man in the team despite his underwhelming spring. He will be out to snare a stage victory at least, to restore his season.

Notable mentions – George Hincapie, it is impossible to not mention George who will be making his 17^th tour appearance and will be a key team helper.

Tejay Van Garderen is a future tour contender and definitely a white jersey contender, however his primary role will be to help Cadel. Tejay could still find himself in the top 10 and is the BMC wildcard should anything happen to Cadel.

Best result – Yellow and White jerseys and stage win Prediction – 2^nd overall, stage for Gilbert and top 15 Van Garderen (but 2^nd in White)

Cofidis – It’s hard not to look at Cofidis as a team of also-rans, and having recently sacked their team manager for lack of results, it’s hard to see how they will factor in the Tour de France.

The key men are Rein Taaramae and David Moncoutie. Taaramae is the young hope and Moncoutie the old stalwart.

Taaramae narrowly missed out on the white jersey and the top 10 last year, and is a contender once again for both.

Moncoutie has successfully focused on the mountains jersey at the Vuelta for the last few seasons, but for Cofidis the Tour polka-dot is worth a whole lot more.

Best result – Stage win, Top 10, white jersey and mountains jersey          Prediction – Top 15 (but 3^rd in White) and Moncoutie 3^rd in Mountains jersey

Europcar – Massively overachieved last year taking 4^th, a long spell in the yellow jersey and taking the white jersey. This year it will be hard to match those heights.

Thomas Voeckler was already a French hero, after his first spell in yellow back in 2004 and winning a stage in 2009, before he took the yellow and 4^th last year. However a knee injury at the Dauphine has meant that it is unlucky he will perform at last years levels, and he is likely to be restricted to breaks and attacks after he has lost considerable amounts of time.

Pierre Rolland was overshadowed by Voeckler last year but his performance still won plenty of admirers as he showed he was one of the strongest climbers in the peloton supporting Voeckler and winning at Alpe D’Huez. This year he is likely to become team leader and burdened with the expectations of a nation. He has the talent to make the top 10 and win the white jersey, again.

Best Result – Top 10, stage and White jersey                 Prediction – Top 10 and white jersey

Euskaltel – A team full of riders from the Basque region (and one from outside – Samuel Sanchez)

Samuel Sanchez hasn’t finished outside the top 10 in a grand tour since 2005, and this year he is likely to continue that trend. He may have one eye on retaining his Olympic title, but he is good value for a top 5 at the Tour, and will once again carry the team.

Mikel Astarloza returns after his ban for taking EPO, he was 9^th back in 2007 so we will see how he performs post ban (and post drugs).

Egoi Martinez may well challenge for the mountains jersey, as he did in 2009 narrowly missing out to the subsequently suspended Franco Pellizotti.

Best Result – Podium/Win for Sammy Sanchez and Mountains jersey      Prediction – Top 5

FDJ – The most aggressive team in 2011, it’s like getting the award for effort at school, they worked hard but weren’t very good.

Jeremy Roy will return to attack at will and win the much coverted (cough cough) most aggressive rider award, although his counterpart Michael Delage has not been selected.

Sandy Casar will be on the attack also, but he has never been a serious grand tour contender. The real shining light is Thibault Pinot, who at just 22 is a serious contender for the white jersey and potentially even a top 10.

Pierrick Fedrigo is a stage win contender with his pedalling action and class the only thing exceeding his nose.

Best result - Top 10, white and a stage win         Prediction – Top 20, and most aggressive award

Garmin – One of the strongest teams, alongside Sky and BMC. Garmin have 3 riders who have previously finished in the top 10 in Christian Vande Velde, Tom Danielson and Ryder Hesjedal.

Ryder Hesjedal is the stated team leader after winning the first grand tour of the year the Giro d’Italia. It remains to be seen how his form holds up post Giro, but Vande Velde and Danielson, as well as tour debutant Dan Martin are all able deputies.

Tyler Farrar is likely to challenge in the sprints, however he may find the competition too strong with the likes of Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan and Kittel.

Best Result – Team Prize, Top 3 and Top 10                   Prediction – Team Prize and 2 Top 10s

GreenEdge – The new Australian team has limited aims overall, with Michael Albasini and Simon Gerrans the best climbers in the team, with Pieter Weening also handy. However none of them have high overall placings in previous grand tours.

Matthew (Harley) Goss is the teams most focus, with a view to possibly the green jersey and certainly a stage win.

Notable mention – Old man O’Grady, Stuart O’Grady starts his 15^th Tour de France

Best result – Stage wins and Green jersey                      Prediction – Stage win

Katusha – A team of over 30s mainly, with Denis Menchov as the main contender, he’s won the Vuelta and the Giro but the Tour has eluded him, despite finishing on the podium in 2010. This year a top 10 is the minimum expectation of Katusha.

Notable mentions – Oscar Freire no longer has the kick of years gone by (probably due to groin injuries throughout the years) but could still contend for a stage win.

Best result – Top 3/Yellow and Stage                             Prediction – Top 5

Lampre – Lampre have been knocking about since 1991, but this is one of the weakest teams they have brought to the Tour.

Michele Scarponi is the grand tour hope after finishing 4^th in the Giro, however it is unlikely he will be able to maintain his form.

Alessandro Petacchi will be going for the sprints, however his time is coming to an end and without a win since May 2011, it is unlikely he will be able to change that at the Tour de France.

Notable mention – Matthew Lloyd is an outside shot at the mountains jersey.

Best result – Top 5 and Stage win                                  Prediction – Top 15 and very little else

Liquigas – Liquigas have Vincenzo Nibali, Vuelta winner in 2010, who is a contender for a good finish in the Tour de France along with Ivan Basso, although Basso has showed little form this year.

Peter Sagan has had a great year so far, dominating the sprints at the Tour of California. He is a contender for the green jersey and stage wins.

Notable mention - Sylvester Szmyd is a good climber who will be valuable help to Nibali and Basso.

Best result – top 3, green and stage wins                                   Prediction – Top 5 and stage wins

Lotto – Last year they were Omega Pharma-Lotto, but Omega joined their Belgian rivals taking a good deal of funding with them. However Lotto still has a few big riders.

Jurgen Van den Broeck crashed out of the Tour last year and recovered for 8^th at Vuelta. This year he will be active in the mountains as time trialling is a weakness.

Jelle Vanendert announced himself last year winning a stage and coming 3^rd in the mountains competition.

Andre Greipel will be chasing another stage win after beating Mark Cavendish in the sprint on stage 10 last year.

Best result – top 3, mountains and green jersey and stage wins   Prediction – Top 5 and stage win

Movistar – Last year Jose Rojas carried their biggest chance of success, making the green jersey competition competitive as well as placing on several stages. This year with the amount of quality sprinters he is unlikely to make the top 5 in the sprint stages.

Alejandro Valverde returns to the Tour de France after his absence for his involvement with Dr. Fuentes. He has returned well and could be a stage threat, although may not have the stamina for the overall.

Juan Jose Cobo, the 2011 Vuelta winner will look to follow his success, however his chance of success is much reduced as he rarely seems to succeed outside of Spain.

Notable mentions - Vladimir Karpets is mentioned, just for his stupid hairdo, a previous white jersey winner who has never delivered on his early promise (unless his early promise was to have a mullet – then he’s more than delivered)

Best result – Top 10 and stages, green jersey                             Prediction – Top 15

Omega Pharma-Quick Step – The team has had a great year so far with Tom Boonen winning both the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, however he won’t be here.

Levi Leipheimer has a shot at a top 5 and Peter Velits is an outsider for top 10.

Tony Martin is good shout for the time trials, and is lighter this year but probably won’t be able to consistently climb with the best.

Best result – Top 3 and stage win                                               Prediction – Top 5 and stage win

Rabobank – Brimming full of young talent, with Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema and Steven Kruijswijk. Kruijswijk is an outsider for the white jersey.

Mark Renshaw has the freedom to sprint but very little assistance and is an outsider for green.

Luis Leon Sanchez and Laurens Ten Dam are wildcards in the mountains, with Sanchez a stage win contender.

Best result – Top 3 and 2 in Top 10, white jersey and stage         Prediction – Top 5 and Top 15

Radioshack-Nissan-Trek – A merger as successful as Daimler-Chrysler (not very successful), the lead up has been as good as Radioshack’s Tour last year.

Andy Schleck is out injured, which puts the pressure on Frank Schleck, who pulled out of the Giro and is playing down Tour expectations.

Fabian Cancellara has recovered from his crash in the Tour of Flanders and will be contending for time trial honours.

The pensioner crew is lead by Chris Horner, with Andreas Kloden and Haimar Zubeldia all have finished in the top 10 of the Tour, they are all outside contenders to repeat that feat.

Best result – Top 5 and stage wins                                             Prediction – Top 10

Saur-Sojasun – They made their first appearance last year with little impact, Jerome Coppel took a solid but unspectacular 14^th. He is their hope for overall.

Brice Feillu won a stage a few years back, but was not selected for Leopard-Trek last year, he could be an outsider for the mountains jersey or a stage.

Best result – Top 10 and stage win                                             Prediction – Top 15

Team Saxo Bank – A shadow of their former selves since Leopard-Schleck was formed taking their best talent. There is very little here to talk about a couple of also ran sprinters Juan Jose Haedo and Jonathan Cantwell.

Chris Sorensen represents the best hope overall, Nick Nuyens could take a stage.

Best result – Stage win                                                              Prediction – Not much going to happen for Saxo Bank

Team Sky – Arguably the strongest team in the race, with solid contenders for the yellow and green jerseys.

Bradley Wiggins has had the dream lead up to the Tour de France, winning Paris-Nice, Tour of Romandy and Dauphine. With a parcours (course) that suits him with ample time trialling, Wiggins has his best chance of success.

Wiggins will be supported by Chris Froome who finished 2^nd in the Vuelta and is a good climber and time triallist.

Unlike last year where, once Wiggins was injured there was no real plan B, Sky have a plan B and C in the shape of Froome and Richie Porte.

Mark Cavendish has won 20 stages in the last 4 tours, an exceptional performance and won the green jersey at the last tour. He has already played down expectations, as his focus is split with the Olympics coming just after the Tour. He is still a force to be reckoned with in the sprint, however with Sagan, Greipel, Goss and Kittel up against him and a shortened train, a couple of stage wins maybe the best he can do.

Best result – Yellow, Green and stage wins                     Prediction – Yellow, green and stage wins

Vacansoleil – Last year Johnny Hoogerland was the unsung hero after he was unceremoniously turfed into a barbed wire fence, and carried on in the mountains jersey despite the pain.

Lieuwe Wiestra and Wout Poels can both climb and could contend overall. Kenny Van Hummel can sprint but not with the big boys.

Best result – Top 10 and stage win                                 Prediction – Top 15.

Tour de France Stages Preview

With the Tour de France just over a week away from starting, I'm going to do a series of previews of what to expect in the Tour de France.


The first one is a preview of the stages of the tour de france, what to expect on each one and where the best action will be.


Stages for Sprinters
Stage 2 - Vise - Tournai
Stage 4 - Abbeville - Rouen
Stage 5 - Rouen - St Quentin
Stage 6 - Epernay - Metz
Stage 13 - Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux - Le Cap d'Agde
Stage 15 - Samatan - Pau
Stage 18 - Blagnac - Brive-la-Gaillarde
Stage 20 - Rambouillet - Paris Champs Elysees


Stages for Puncheurs (Punchy climbers)
Stage 1 - Liege - Seraing
Stage 3 - Orchies - Boulogne Sur Mer


Stages for Climbers
Stage 7 - Tomblaine - La Planche des Belles Filles
Stage 8 - Belfort - Porrentury
Stage 10 - Macon - Bellegarde sur Valserine 
Stage 11 - Albertville - La Toussuire LesSybelles
Stage 14 - Limoux - Foix


Stages for Time Trialists
Stage 9 - Arc et Senans - Besancon (41.5km)
Stage 19 - Bonneval - Chartres (53.5km)


Stages for breakaways
Stage 12 - St-Jean de Maurienne - Annonay Davezieux
Stage 16 - Pau - Bagneres-de-Luchon
Stage 17 - Bagneres-de-Luchon - Peyragudes


I've separated the stages in to who I think they will suit. Although, stage 13, 15 and 18 I've listed as sprinters stages, they could equally be breakaways as they are not straightforward flat stages.


Where the Tour will be won
The time trials will be key, with nearly 100 km of time trialling compared to just 42.5km individual and a team time trial of 23km.


Last year the first 20 were separated by 2mins 41secs. This means that time gaps between time trialists like Cadel Evans and Bradley Wiggins and climbers like Robert Gesink could be 5 minutes.


With only two high summit finishes on stage 11 and 17 and one mid mountain summit finish stage 7, the Tour certainly favours the time triallists, especially without protagonists such as Rodriguez, Contador and Andy Schleck. The time gaps in the mountains are unlikely to be as high as without them.


Stage 7 is going to be a key one. This will be where the key contenders will come to the fore and we will see who the challengers for the yellow jersey, podium and top 10 will be.


Sprinters
On paper the sprinters have 8 chances to win a stage, however it is not that simple. Many of the stages have sharp climbs close to the end, stage 3 and 4 being the case and point. These could be a perfect springboard for an opportunist to get away. This could stretch the resources of Lotto-Belisol and Team Sky especially. Team Sky will have to try to measure their resources to ensure their is enough support for both Mark Cavendish and Bradley Wiggins.


Even though the stages are not necessarily as exciting as previous years, it is the racers not the stages that make a great tour. I think this Tour is going to be as tight as ever and hopefully as exciting as ever.


I can't wait!

Sporting Injustice

Sporting Injustice

This week has had it’s fair share of sporting injustices, from the goal that wasn’t, to Ashley Young’s swan dive and Drogba’s theatrics to Synchronised being put down in the Grand National.

                This year has had its fair share of injustices, not least in manager dismissals. Some of the most unlikely and unfair dismissals have occurred this year.

You could trace it back to Sam Allardyce’s departure from Blackburn, with Blackburn mid-table and comfortably a Premiership side, now they are in a relegation dog-fight.

Since then, Lee Clark at Huddersfield; Simon Grayson at Leeds United and Gary Megson at Sheffield Wednesday have all lost their jobs unfairly.

Clark was in 4^th place with Huddersfield, Megson was in 3^rd place with Sheffield Wednesday and Grayson had Leeds chasing the play-offs, having got them promoted a couple of seasons back.

All these clubs are either worse off, or no better off.

And then there is Mick McCarthy, having got Wolves into the Premier league and maintained their status, he was sacked as they faced another relegation battle. Granted he had spent money this season, but replacing him with Terry Connor, his assistant made very little sense. You have to think McCarthy would have made a better fist of their last few games, and would have given them a chance of staying up.

The truth is there will always be injustice, wrong decisions will always occur in the game, and it is clear that technology can reduce the wrong decisions, but cannot eradicate them. Even so, even when the right decision is made the injustice may have already been perpetrated, think of Ghana and Luis Suarez deliberate handball and Gyan’s subsequent missed penalty costing Ghana a chance in the World Cup Semi-finals. Think of the 2004 olympic marathon where the Brazilian runner, leading the marathon was pounced upon by an Irish protestor. No technology, no sanction or fine can make up for those moments.

We can and should reduce injustice, through proper use of technology. But we must acknowledge and understand that injustice will still occur, because we cannot rely on the spirit of the game to override the desire to win. Integrity should always be worth more, but many value the win more highly.

The Australian Open of Surfing

I am a fan of all sports in general (there are a few slight exceptions) but this week increased my appreciation for the more extreme sports, surfing and skateboarding.

This week Manly Beach, Sydney has hosted the Australian Open of Surfing. With some of the biggest names in surfing and some classic skaters thrown into the mix also, this weekend saw some great action.

Surfing

The surf competition showcassed some great talent, with Joel 'Parko' Parkinson and Taj Burrow; unfortunately both got knocked out, but aside from the pros there were some great juniors.

Matt Banting was pulling some sick moves and in one heat landed two almost perfect scores both over 9, to end with a 19.8.

Skating

The skaters line-up this week included some classic Tony Hawks Skateboarding names, Bob Burnquist; Bucky Lasek and Rune Glifberg. Unfortunately seats were at a premium, so we weren't able to catch these classic skaters.

However we did see the junior competition and these youngsters were so gutsy, with 11 year olds pulling tricks like you wouldn't believe. Check out Luke Russell in this clip

Bethany Hamilton

The undoubted highlight of the weekend for me was hearing from Bethany Hamilton. This girl is a real legend.

At the age of 13 whilst surfing in Kauai, Hawaii where she grew up she was attacked by a tiger shark. The shark tore her left arm and left her with a stub.

Despite this she said she knew God's peace through it all. Not content to let the use of one arm hold her back, Bethany got back out on her board. Not only that she began to compete and is now one of the top females in World Surfing.

Her story is one of incredible courage, her surfing ability (one armed) is only rivalled by her rock solid faith. Her book was turned into a film in 2011 called 'The Soul Surfer' she is truly inspirational and definitely worth checking out the film and book.